Can LSU handle success? We’ll find out tomorrow after they take the field against a talented and desperate Arkansas team. The Tigers will be fighting to maintain their focus and intensity after pulling an upset against Alabama a week ago. Arkansas is coming off an embarrassing loss against Liberty and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Records aside, this is not an automatic win, as evidenced by the 3.5 point spread in favor of LSU. This is traditionally a tough game for LSU due to where it falls on the schedule and the fact that Arkansas treats it as a true rivalry. An Arkansas win is akin to beating your big brother; it’s exciting, validating, and gratifying for the program. An LSU win doesn’t mean as much to the LSU fan base, because in most cases it’s seen as a game they’re supposed to win. Now that we know why this rivalry results in so many close games, let’s take a look at how they match up.
LSU Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Judging by the statistics, Arkansas’s run defense is comparable to LSU’s defense. Only three decimal points separate the two teams in yard per carry average. However, we’ve reached a point in the season where I take more from what I’ve seen than I take from stats. I saw an Arkansas defense that gave up yards in chunks against Texas A&M, Auburn, and Alabama. Jayden Daniels has run the ball well against almost every opponent, but the emergence of Josh Williams and John Emery has made stopping the LSU running game a daunting task. The only thing that could slow the Tigers’ rushing offense down is if they game plan to attack Arkansas through the air. Arkansas ranks 131st in passing defense. In case you’re wondering, there are only 131 teams in FBS football. Mike Denbrock will run enough to keep the defense honest, but this is a game in which the LSU passing game will shine. Arkansas has a solid cornerback in LSU transfer Dwight McGlothern, but he won’t be enough to keep the Tiger wideouts from making plays. Big advantage to LSU.
LSU Defense vs. Arkansas Offense
The biggest question for the Arkansas Offense is the status of their quarterback, KJ Jefferson. Jefferson is 6’3″, 242 lbs., and is essentially a less explosive Anthony Richardson. LSU gave up some big plays to Richardson in the Swamp, but Jefferson is not healthy. He threw two interceptions and fumbled once against Liberty. Even if he’s healthy enough to play, he won’t be 100%. Expect Arkansas to lean on their running game to protect Jefferson and pass when the opportunities present themselves. Sophomore running back Raheim Sanders could play for any team in the conference. He has a coveted combination of size and speed that has helped him to an impressive 6.4 yard per carry average. Fortunately for LSU, this defense has held both Ole Miss and Alabama’s running game in check. Ole Miss leads the conference in rushing yards and managed to gain only 117 yards against LSU. Alabama, the program formerly known as a dynasty, gained 137 against the Tigers. Matt House will have the Tiger defense prepared to stop the run and force Arkansas to throw the ball, which will open Jefferson up to taking more hits. LSU has the advantage.
With the exception of 2019, I have not known what to expect from LSU against Arkansas in several years. When LSU has had a significant, achievable goal on the table they have played hard. If not, it’s usually a toss-up. The good news is the Tigers’ goals are still very much attainable. The better news is LSU has a more competent coaching staff than in previous years. Brian Kelly has let the team know early and often that they are responsible for ensuring they employ the right mentality approaching this game. When asked about a letdown, he responded, “If they’re asking me to keep the fire lit, we’re in trouble…It’s their job to motivate themselves.” This might sound like a cop-out, but it’s teaching the team what’s most important in building a sustainable program – accountability. This is not the regime of yesterday. This team has gotten better every week, and I don’t expect that to change. LSU 34 – Arkansas 21. Geaux Tigers!!