The mighty LSU Tigers will begin SEC play as a two and a half point underdog to…Mississippi State? This would have been hard for me to believe in the old Jefferson Pilot days of LSU routinely beating the Bulldogs by 40, but that was then. This is now, and Mississippi State is a legitimate SEC team with the athletes and continuity to compete with anybody in the division. Head coach Mike Leach is now coaching one of the more physically gifted quarterbacks he’s had in Will Rogers, and MSU is currently considered more of a known commodity than LSU. However, they’ve only beaten Arizona and Memphis, so let’s not hand over the national championship trophy just yet. This game is obviously significant for both teams. It can give LSU a renewed sense of confidence in the new system and regime, or it could serve as a springboard for Mississippi State into national relevance. As usual, I’ll compare the units for a closer look.

MSU Offense vs. LSU Defense

Mississippi State is perceived as a run and shoot, fast paced offense. The truth is the Bulldogs run a ball control offense, which makes it even more critical for LSU to get off the field on third down. MSU is second only to Georgia in time of possession in the SEC. Rogers is smart, patient, and accurate. State has also improved their talent level at the skill positions, led by Caleb Ducking and Rara Thomas on the perimeter. Ducking is particularly dangerous in the red zone. Mike Leach has finally shown the willingness run the ball enough to keep the defense honest. LSU’s cornerbacks have held up well in coverage so far, so expect MSU to attack the middle of the field where LSU had some communication issues against Florida State. LSU linebacker Micah Baskerville returned to the lineup last week, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. His coverage skills and playmaking ability combine for the ideal skillset for this game. As good as Rogers is, he made some questionable/late throws over the middle last week that Arizona did not always capitalize on. LSU will need to get pressure with a three man front to allow 8 in coverage, and it’s imperative that they make open field tackles. LSU has the athletes but has yet to play consistent, sound, mistake free defense for a whole game. Until they do, Mississippi State gets the nod here.

LSU Offense vs. MSU Defense

Mississippi State has talent on their front four, but I don’t expect them to generate the pressure Florida State did. There will be plays to be made for LSU. Offensive Coordinator Mike Denbrock made a concerted effort to get Kayshon Boutte involved early and often against Southern, and there were fewer drops amongst the wide receiver group last week. It was also encouraging to see Jayden Daniels keep his eyes downfield to pass while scrambling; he is an even more dangerous quarterback when doing so. Although the last game was not against comparable talent, it’s always a confidence booster when multiple weapons get involved. Don’t sleep on MSU’s secondary; they have enough NFL talent and size at cornerback to match up with LSU’s receivers better than most teams, as junior Emmanuel Forbes has been impressive since his arrival on campus. Running back John Emery finally returns for LSU this week, and the Tigers have to make more of an effort to run the ball. Time will tell if the changes to the offensive line personnel will stabilize the group, but Brian Kelly sure hopes so. This is a sound defense that won’t beat themselves, but LSU’s dangerous skill position players will only get more explosive as they get more experience playing together. Advantage LSU.

Mississippi State has looked better than LSU so far this year, and they should have. They returned more production than any team in the SEC and maintained continuity within the coaching staff. LSU has the higher ceiling from a talent standpoint. Tomorrow’s game will not be about ceilings or potential; it’s about deciding who the best team is right now. Surely, LSU has gotten better since week one, but how much? This the next test of the growth of this team. It’s key for LSU to make plays early to encourage what will be a raucous crowd for the first SEC home game of the year. The crowd noise, offensive line adjustments, and return of key players will be just enough to get the Tigers over the hump. LSU wins 28-24, the fan base overreacts, and Mike Leach learns that the 2020 Covid Classic was not a true indicator of the homefield advantage that Death Valley presents. Geaux Tigers!!